Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Taleb's first book asks a question most successful people never ask: how much of this was luck? A trader who wins for five years may be skilled, or may be one of the ten thousand who had to win by chance.

He works through survivorship bias, the alternative histories that did not happen but easily could have, why we cannot help constructing narratives after the fact, and why a strategy that makes money almost every day may still be a way of quietly collecting risk. The tone is arrogant and the argument is very hard to dismiss.

The first book of the Incerto series, before The Black Swan. Still the best entry point to Taleb.

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✅ Matt cover (Paperback)